The Australian Dollar (AUD) is expected to consolidate in a range of 0.6760/0.6810. In the longer run, there has been no further increase in momentum; if AUD breaks below 0.6730, it would mean that 0.6870 is not coming into view, UOB Group analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.
AUD can rise after a sustained breach of 0.6810
24-HOUR VIEW: “Yesterday, we detected ‘a slight increase in upward momentum.’ We indicated that ‘there is scope for AUD to edge higher, but any advance is likely limited to a test of 0.6815.’ Our view was not wrong, as AUD rose to 0.6813, pulling back to close at 0.6785 (-0.13%). AUD has likely entered a consolidation phase. Today, we expect AUD to trade in a range of 0.6760/0.6810.”
1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Our most recent narrative was from Monday (26 Aug, spot at 0.6790), wherein ‘while the outsized advance from last Friday suggests further AUD strength, given the overbought conditions, it remains to be seen if 0.6870 is within reach in the next 1 to 2 weeks.’ Yesterday, AUD rose to 0.6813, then pulled back. There has been no further increase in momentum, and if AUD breaks below 0.6730 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) it would mean that 0.6870 is not coming into view.”
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